It’s looking like Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States. The election results aren’t certified yet, but it’s unlikely any of President Trump’s legal challenges will be successful. Unless something very unlikely happens, we’ll have Joe Biden as our President for the next 4 years come January 2021.
Obviously libertarians are not happy at the prospect of a Joe Biden presidency but Trump was also one of the worst Presidents we’ve ever had in terms of freedom and liberty. That doesn’t mean Trump didn’t do some things libertarians might like. His tax cuts, cutting regulations at a record pace, and the fact that he didn’t start any new wars are all things to like about Trump’s time in office. But basically everything else was detrimental to freedom - from his rhetoric, to increased drone strikes, and the whole trade war. While he didn’t start any new wars, he didn’t end any either. In fact, he made use of sanctions to redefine geopolitics in the Middle East (continuing the American tradition of meddling in places we shouldn’t) and though he promised to end the War in Afghanistan, he really just moved troops around the region instead of bringing any significant amount of them home.
Joe Biden promises to heal our divide and bring us all together. That’s unlikely. We’re still as divided as ever and lots of people who voted for Trump aren’t just going to go along with Biden’s polices or suddenly approve of lockdowns or mask mandates because he speaks nicely to them. We’ll definitely have better political rhetoric from the Executive branch. Biden sounds more Presidential when he speaks and isn’t crass like Trump is. It’s likely this combined with the fact that Trump is gone will cause lots of people to start tuning out when it comes to politics again just as they did before Trump. And the media will still play up how awful things are and play up the divide between the different sides in this country because it gets them views and clicks.
Many people are happy that we’ll be “back to normal” with Biden as President. After how exhausting mentally the last four years have been, that’s understandable. But what is “normal”? A return to President Obama’s policies? Is that really beneficial to America? Based on Biden’s platform he ran on and what his record was, both in the Senate and as Obama’s Vice President, we pretty much know what to expect. It’s unlikely he’ll appease the far left very much given that Republicans gained seats in the House and could retain control of the Senate. But even a moderate Obama-like standard is bad for liberty.
We’re likely headed back to a conventional neoconservative foreign policy under Biden. There’s a reason neocons of the Bush era backed Joe Biden over Donald Trump overwhelmingly. Looking at Obama’s record, it’s easy to anticipate what Biden’s foreign policy will look like:
Launching ten times as many covert drone assassinations as Bush.
Orchestrating ‘regime change’ in Libya and, in the process, turning the country into a medieval throwback.
Playing a hand in the 2009 coup in Honduras as well as aiding successive post-coup governments.
Imposing crippling sanctions on the democratically-elected government of Venezuela.
Keeping open the infamous Guantanamo Bay Detention Center in which people are held indefinitely without charge and frequently subjected to torture.
Increasing troop numbers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Putting the war issue aside, what else can we expect from a Biden Presidency? Well, you only have to look at the policies listed on his website. While Trump was no friend to gun owners, Biden will be even worse:
Ban the manufacture and sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
Regulate possession of existing assault weapons under the National Firearms Act
Buy back the assault weapons and high-capacity magazines already in our communities.
Require background checks for all gun sales.
Reinstate the Obama-Biden policy to keep guns out of the hands of certain people unable to manage their affairs for mental reasons, which President Trump reversed
End the online sale of firearms and ammunitions
Incentivize state “extreme risk” laws
Give states incentives to set up gun licensing programs
Put America on the path to ensuring that 100% of firearms sold in America are smart guns
Require gun owners to safely store their weapons
Stop “ghost guns.”
This list of policies is basically everything gun control advocates have been pushing for for decades. And on top of all this, Biden promised to put a man who promised to take people’s guns away in charge of his gun policy as President. Again, this entire list is unlikely to get done (especially if Republicans hold the Senate) but some can be done via Executive Order - something his VP said she would like to do.
How bad for liberty Biden’s Presidency will be depends on who ends up with control of the Senate after Georgia’s runoff election in January. Even if Republicans maintain narrow control over the Senate, I expect some kind of token gun control law (probably a national red flag law) just to do something. But if Democrats gain control of the Senate, we know what the plan is from Democrats:
End the filibuster in the Senate to avoid having to compromise with Republicans
Pack the Supreme Court to back their agenda
That last one is up for debate on whether it’s good or bad, but Democrats want to do it for political purposes. The topic of Statehood for DC and US territories is very interesting and may be worthy of a future piece. But let’s focus on the first two. Biden has signaled support for at least looking at the idea of SCOTUS reform (read: packing). This would backfire in the long term against Democrats but beyond that, it’d be bad for the public’s faith in our country’s institutions. Ending the filibuster is a procedural thing and on paper, not a huge deal. But it’s further escalation in something that started with Harry Reid and Senate Democrats in 2013 and is designed to make sure the majority party can pass whatever they want without any bipartisanship, debate, or compromise with the minority party. All this makes it easier for Democrats to pass Biden’s agenda on things like gun control, socialized healthcare, increased taxes, and more.
Ultimately, both Biden and Trump are bad for liberty and freedom. They’re just bad in different ways. Most of what Trump did was via Executive Order. Biden has enough political experience that he might be successful in getting deals done for permanent laws more frequently than Trump was able to. And Biden is already planning on undoing most of Trump’s orders on day one.
The biggest difference is Biden’s charisma and ability to act like an actual adult. That could get people to stop caring or protesting what they claimed to care about in the last four years. Unfortunately, it’s most likely that the majority of Democrats go back to not caring about the kids in cages at the border, the assassinations without due process overseas that will continue, or the spying on Americans and renewal of the Patriot Act that Biden not only supports but helped write originally. It’s also unlikely Biden will defund the police. On the contrary, he wants increased funding for the police and he was the architect of the disastrous 1994 crime bill.
And now that Trump is leaving office, Republicans will suddenly pretend to care about the federal deficit and debt and gun control again. Where were they the last four years on these issues? Liberty is unlikely to win if it’s only used by the major parties when they’re not in power and discarded once they’re in power. Luckily the 2020 election was not all bad. There are a lot of good things happening at the local level across the entire country that are very encouraging for the future. As libertarians, the best thing we can hope for right now is that Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Not because we should agree with their policies but a divided and gridlocked Congress is better for liberty than one that moves to implement more authoritarian policies.